FXTM Market Outlook for Q1 2019

Trade tensions, uncertain political risk, Brexit negotiations, Oil prices, and the unpredictable nature of what President Trump is going to do next are just a few of the lingering factors from last year that will continue to impact financial markets in 2019. Global, award-winning forex broker FXTM investigates these drivers with its latest market research report, the FXTM Quarterly Market Outlook 2019 – Q1, a snapshot of the coming quarter that is mandatory reading for those with interest in financial markets.

“Global synchronized economic growth was the key theme in 2017.  Year 2018 saw the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world. In 2019 we are likely to converge again, but this time in a synchronized global slowdown. Many indicators have indicated a peak in the U.S. economic cycle, including most recent economic surveys, financial conditions, housing data, and the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Adding this together with trade tensions, political risk, fading fiscal stimulus, and a tighter U.S. monetary policy; the economic outlook is expected to look look much more vulnerable in 2019”, remarked Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM.

Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy and Market Research at FXTM shares his view on the Japanese Yen out-performing its peers and that the Australian Dollar risks being remembered as one of the under-performing currencies in the FX markets for 2019: “We expect an abundance of anxiety that the new trading year could very much encourage a theme of investors “selling everything”, which is a proxy of strength in the Yen due to its status as a safe-haven asset in recent times. Investors should also not forget that the Australian Dollar stands as one of the most historically overvalued currencies in the developed markets. The negative implications of prolonged trade tensions between the United States and China are going to impact Australia more than the market has as of yet priced in.”

“Regardless of the macroeconomic conditions in the UK, the Pound’s trajectory will be heavily dictated by Brexit developments this quarter. With the Bank of England expected to remain status quo on interest rates amid the endless uncertainty, the fundamental outlook for Sterling swings in favour of bears”, said Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM. “If global market conditions fail to improve and risk aversion reigns, Gold is in line to be one of the very few instruments that shines through in 2019.”

Please find attached FXTM’s latest report, the Quarterly Market Outlook 2019 – Q1. This detailed report gives valuable insight into what to watch out for in the upcoming quarter, including the GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD currency pairs as well as commodities such as Gold and WTI Oil.


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